Wednesday, March 17, 2010

NW Montana’s Southern Alberta-Basin Oil Play: Bakken, Three Forks, Banff (Lodgepole) new play. Updated 17 March 2010


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Location: Northwest Montana: from Cut Bank to the Canadian border and west to Glacier Park.

Major Players:
Rosetta Resources (ROSE) 254,000 net acres, and still leasing
Newfield Exploration (NFX) 221,000 net acres, and still leasing
Quicksilver Resources (KWK) 130,000 net acres (+more in a JV with Mt Power)

We don’t know much, as only three 2010 vertical wells have been drilled (all by Rosetta), and Rosetta tried to complete only one with a horizontal. Rosetta said that three producing zones (Bakken, Three Forks and Banff) taken together are equal to the Williston Basin’s Bakken. That’s a concern as Rosetta’s first attempt to frac all three through one horizontal failed.

This play will likely be slow in developing. Rosetta will only say that it intends to drill at least one well this year and Newfield says they will move a rig in April.

Quicksilver (KWK) looked at the Bakken four years ago with vertical wells on its 130,000 acres, which is held by production. With 2006 technology, Quicksilver found the Bakken to be uneconomic. However with technology’s great leap in 2008 and 2009, its says it will try again. The geology looks good, it only a question of whether 2010 technology fits the local Bakken horizon.

Quicksilver will probably complete or recompleted two horizontal wells in the Bakken in 2010. Quicksilver’s acreage is east of the other operators. The Bakken is only 3,000 to 4,000 feet deep.

Eventually, the Southern Alberta-Basin Oil Play will get developed as technology advances and oil prices increase. Whether it means a major bonanza for any of these, I cannot say.

Assuming all the acreage has equal value, Rosetta is the purer play as its mktcap (market capitalization) is only $1.4 billion. Next is Quicksilver, (mktcap = $2.3 B). And then comes Newfield (mktcap = $7.3 B). Quicksilver the most expertise in horizontal drilling and Newfield is second.

Not of these firms is tightly focused or a pure play. All are natural gas heavy and oil poor.

Recommendation: I’m not hot any of these stocks, especially at current prices. If one has a major decline, I might buy. But, if there is a major pullpack, then other petroleum exploration and production stocks might be even a better buy.
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